Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday October 4, 6:30pm (AEST),
ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Best Bet: Brisbane ($1.91)
Other: Brisbane 13+ ($4.50)
Over 36.5 ($1.90)

The 2015 NRL season draws to a thrilling conclusion with the first all-Queensland Grand Final in premiership history. The Broncos entered 2015 in high hopes after signing Anthony Milford and bringing back master coach Wayne Bennett but even the faithful would not have dreamed of their return to the premiership decider for the first time in nine years. The Cowboys have been so close so often in recent seasons but after some rough endings must surely have thought a Grand Final seemed beyond them. With all of Queensland – all of Australia and much of the world – looking on, we seem set for one of the great Grand Finals between two clubs who very much deserve their spot at the big dance.

Wayne Bennett has named an unchanged Brisbane team though all eyes will be on the NRL judiciary on Tuesday night with retiring skipper Justin Hodges facing the prospect of missing the decider – and his final game – through suspension. If Hodges does miss out, Dale Copley will likely win a centre berth. Brisbane have five players – Hodges, Darius Boyd, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Adam Blair – with Grand Final experience. Josh McGuire is the only Bronco from their strongest 17 not in the side. Paul Green has named an unchanged North Queensland team from that which thrashed Melbourne. Ray Thompson will travel as 18th man. North Queensland will field their strongest 17 with no key injuries. The Cowboys have three players with Grand Final experience – Johnathan Thurston (2004), Ben Hannant (2006) and Justin O’Neill (2012).

Brisbane and North Queensland have met on 42 occasions with the Broncos winning 29 times since the clubs first played in 1995. The Cowboys have won 11 times with two draws. This is the fifth finals meeting between the two teams with the Cowboys winning in 2004, 2012 and 2013. The Broncos defeated the Cowboys in the first week of the 2015 series. This will be the fourth meeting between the teams in 2015 with the Broncos winning 44-22 in Round 3 and 16-12 in the opening week of the finals while the Cowboys won 31-20 in Townsville in Round 10. Michael Morgan has scored four tries against Brisbane this year. This is the first time the two teams have met south of the Tweed and will be Brisbane’s first Grand Final since 2006 and North Queensland’s second ever and first since 2005. Four of the last five matches between the sides have topped 40 points. The Broncos have posted 20 in just one of their last 10 against the Cowboys. Antonio Winterstein, Ben Hannant and Jake Granville all played for the Broncos while Cowboys coach Paul Green had a brief stint as a player in Brisbane.

The Broncos led the premiership race for the majority of the season (14 weeks) and have been dominant throughout the finals. The Broncos were tough winners in the first weekend of the finals, beating North Queensland 16-12 before a dominant 31-12 win over the Sydney Roosters in the preliminary final. The Broncos have won four of their last eight but have posted 16-plus in just three of those matches. Brisbane have the fourth rated attack and third rated defence. The Broncos have not conceded more than 15 points in their last six and not conceded more than 16 in nine of their last 11. In the post Origin period the Broncos rank first in defence and sixth in attack. Brisbane have played five times in Sydney this year for a 3-2 record while they are 8-4 on the road this year. North Queensland finished the season third with a 17-7 record. They are the top attacking team and fifth ranked defensive side. In the post-Origin period the Cowboys have had the top attack with 29.1 points per game while they rank sixth in defence with 19.1 points conceded a match. The Cowboys have won four of their last six, including finals wins over Cronulla 39-0 and Melbourne 32-12, two dominant victories. North Queensland have not conceded more than 16 points in any of their last six. North Queensland are 5-1 in Sydney this year and 10-4 on the road.

NRL Grand Final Odds
Ben Hunt and Johnathan Thurston have been the two best halves in the premiership this season and it is fitting that they will square off on the biggest stage of the year. Thurston was crowned the Dally M Medal winner on Monday – his record fourth win – and was clearly the top player in the premiership all year. It was the ninth Top 5 finish in 11 years. He has 29 try assists, first in the NRL, and comes off a four-assist performance against the Storm. His 1.04 line break assists per game makes him the only player to have a better ratio than one this year. He is the dominant playmaker in the game. Hunt has again been undersold. He is a different type to Thurston but has been their most effective player. He has combined for 30 tries and assists – one of just three players ti achieve the feat – while his 0.6 errors per game is remarkable for someone who touches the ball so much. No other half in the game has less than an error a game. Hunt’s kicking game is critical as no player has kicked the ball more or further this year.

The Broncos are 18-8 ATS – best in the NRL – with a 13-13 over-under record while the Roosters are 14-12 ATS with a 16-10 under record. North Queensland are a poor 13-14 ATS this year with a 17-10 over record Wayne Bennett coached teams are 34-16 since 2009 when his team has had a break of 9 or more days. Bennett has won his last seven Grand Finals, including six with Brisbane. The Broncos have won five of their last six under Gerard Sutton while the Cowboys have won just three of their last six under him with just a single cover. The Broncos are 18-11 ATS after conceding 12 or fewer points. The Cowboys have covered just three of their last nine in an identical situation. Over the last two years, the Cowboys are 25-12 with a 17-20 ATS record when shorter than $2.00 while the Broncos are 23-8 with a 21-10 ATS number. Brisbane are 13-6 ATS interstate over the last two years while the Cowboys are 15-9 ATS. The Cowboys have covered just three of their last 10 off a win of 19 or more. Top Two defensive teams have filled 14 of the last 18 Grand Final slots and have won nine straight deciders – Brisbane are the only team who rank top two in defence this year. Seven of the last eight deciders have seen at least 34 points scored. None of the last 10 deciders have been decided by less than a converted try. Six of the last 10 Grand Finals have had margins of 13 points or more. In Wayne Bennett’s last seven Grand Finals, his team has conceded single figures on six occasions with Canterbury’s 12 in 1998 the most during that run.

2015 NRL Grand Final Key Stats
Brisbane are 17-3 when scoring first try this season, clearly the best record in the NRL. They are 15-1 when ahead at halftime, 17-1 when ahead at 60 minutes and 16-2 when they get to a lead of seven or more. They are incredible front runners. Brisbane have failed to score the first try on just six occasions this year from 26 matches, best in the NRL. The Broncos are 1-6 when falling behind by seven points. North Queensland, by contrast, have been incredibly slow starters, crossing first in just 10 of 27 matches. When they have scored the first try they are 8-2 and are extraordinarily hard to run down with a 13-2 record when in front by halftime and 14-2 when they get to a lead of more than a converted try. The Cowboys have mastered the art of the comeback though. Their 11-6 record after conceding first try, a remarkable record considering no other team strikes at better than 50% after conceding first try. The Cowboys are deadly when in front while they can win from behind. The Broncos are fast starters and typically capitalise on an early lead.

The Wolf has not been as confident heading into a Grand Final since steaming into the Storm against the Eels in 2009 than he is on the Broncos. Brisbane have been such reliable propositions this season and with a coach that is near unbeatable in Grand Finals they seem too much value at around the $1.91 quote. For The Wolf, Brisbane are absolute morals. In Grand Finals it is always best practice to back the stronger defensive team and Brisbane by all measures are the superior defensive unit while Wayne Bennett has a remarkable history of defensive stoutness in premiership deciders. The Cowboys are a quality team and their tails are up but against the cream this year they have been found wanting more often than not. If the Cowboys do pull off the incredible, it will need to be a miraculous showing from Johnathan Thurston. He just seems up against it though with the juggernaut that is Brisbane.

Hows it Shaping Up
Brisbane by 14

Best Bet
Brisbane ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Brisbane 13+ ($4.50)
Over 36.5 ($1.90)

2015 NRL Grand Final Betting Preview for Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland thanks to William Hill Australia.

Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have 2015 NRL Grand Final comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.