2015 NRL Round 3 Betting Preview for Warriors vs Parramatta thanks to William Hill Australia.
3pm AEDT, Saturday, March 21
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
New Zealand get their first home match of the season and will be looking for a convincing win against a Parramatta team they have had some early season troubles with in recent years. Injuries have hurt both teams though making this clash all the more important.
Andrew McFadden has named an unchanged lineup for the Warriors but star halfback Shaun Johnson is in major doubt. If he does go down Tuimoala Lolohea will likely shift to halfback with Matt Allwood starting in the centres. The Eels have lost outside backs Semi Radradra and Beau Champion with Vai Toutai and Ryan Morgan coming into the team. Halfback Chris Sandow and star lock Anthony Watmough are also in doubt. Luke Kelly and Cody Nelson would come in if they didn’t get through training.
Parramatta hold a 19-14 all-time advantage over New Zealand but the last four have been evenly split. The teams met twice last year with the Eels winning 36-16 at Parramatta Stadium before getting thumped 48-0 at Mt Smart. New Zealand have won four straight against the Eels at Mt Smart with three victories by 13-plus. The last four between these sides have all topped 40. Warriors winger Jono Wright is a former Parramatta player.
Both New Zealand and Parramatta have opened up the season with a win and a loss. The Warriors were disappointing against the Knights in Newcastle before grinding out a tough road win in Canberra. No team has run for more metres this year than the Warriors but they have scored just five tries. They also lead the NRL in errors but have been the best kick-chase team in the premiership. There is a basis there for the Warriors but as has always been the case they have struggled for consistency. The Eels are a schizophrenic team and have showed that in a big win over Manly before being thumped by Canterbury, though the final scoreline was unfair to Parramatta. The Eels’ attack has looked good but the loss of weapon Semi Radradra will hurt. Parramatta had just 44% of the ball last week and busted just 13 tackles.
Look for Sam Tomkins and Will Hopoate to have a major impact on this one. Tomkins was outstanding against Canberra with a try assist and two line breaks and is looking incredibly comfortable in the NRL this season. Hopoate is coming along just as well in his development as a fullback and was excellent for the Eels last Friday with 162 metres. Both have so much potential and will look to take full advantage of it in what both sides will consider a very winnable affair.
Champion Data Formguide: Warriors v Eels
Stats That Matter
Away from Parramatta Stadium the Eels are a horrific 8-47 straight and 12-35 ATS over the last four seasons with the over 29-18, losing by an average of 17 points. The Eels have not covered their last five away from the ground and have conceded 32-plus in their last three and in seven of their last 12. The Warriors are 18-12 (15-15 ATS) at Mt Smart over the same time and are 13-6 (9-10 ATS) when favoured with an 11-8 over record. The Eels are 1-9 (4-6 ATS) away from home after conceding 30 points while the Warriors are 2-1 straight and ATS at home off keeping an opponent to 10 points or under. The Warriors are 10-15 straight and ATS in day matches while the Eels are 4-8 (5-7 ATS) with an 8-4 over record. The over is 15-7 in day matches officiated by Ashley Klein.
This game is going one way and one way only and it will be a convincing New Zealand win. Most of the numbers stack up for the Warriors though their lack of scoring this year has been a worry. Back on home turf though some of those issues should be alleviated, particularly if Shaun Johnson is cleared to play. Parramatta have just taken too big a hit with injuries and are a very different team on the road. The Warriors by plenty.
How It’s Shaping Up
New Zealand by 16
New Zealand -8.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
New Zealand 13+ ($2.30)
New Zealand 19+ ($3.35)
Warriors vs Parramatta Comparison Betting Odds
Below we have 2015 NRL Round 3 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.