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2015 NRL Round 4 Betting Preview – Parramatta vs Souths

2015 NRL Round 4 Betting Preview for Parramatta vs Souths thanks to William Hill Australia.

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs
7.35pm AEDT, Friday, March 27
Parramatta Stadium, Sydney
The Bunnies have cleared the first three rounds with three wins – and three covers – but face a stiff test against an Eels team who grow a leg at Parramatta Stadium. Souths go in raging favourites but the Eels are confident they can turn their recent history against the Bunnies around.

Selection Notes
Parramatta are unchanged from the team that was well beaten by New Zealand though Nathan Peats and Isaac De Gois must pass concussion tests. Souths have lost Dylan Walker to a broken hand with former Bulldogs centre Daryl Millard to make his Bunnies debut. Ben Lowe and Nathan Brown have been named on an extended bench.

History
South Sydney have won 65 of the 118 matches played against Parramatta and have dominated the matchup recently with seven straight wins, the last six coming by 14 points or greater with Souths averaging 35.33 points per match in the last six. The Eels have won eight of the last nine at Parra Stadium against the Bunnies but they have played just once since 2007 with the Bunnies winning 32-12 last year. Six of the last seven between the two sides have tallied more than 40 points. Parramatta have a host of former Rabbitohs players including Chris Sandow and Nathan Peats while Souths winger Joel Reddy is a former Parramatta player.

Form
South Sydney top the table, undefeated after three weeks with three covers. The Bunnies annihilated Brisbane and came back against the Roosters before a flat showing against the Tigers where they still won by 14 points. Souths lead the NRL in points with 30 points per game as well as defence conceding 12.8 points per game. They have based their attack on dummy-half running while their defence has been about stifling the opposition. Parramatta’s numbers aren’t nearly as great after winning well against Manly in the opening round before suffering losses to Canterbury and New Zealand in subsequent weeks where they were blown off the paddock in patches both times. Holding the ball has been an issue for Parramatta with the Eels making the fewest runs and making the most tackles, an area Souths are well and truly equipped to take advantage of.

Key Matchup
Parramatta and Souths both seem to be at their very best when respective hookers Nathan Peats and Issac Luke are firing. Luke has been outstanding this year, leading the NRL in possessions and leads the NRL in dummy half metres as Souths get a roll on off Luke’s sharp dummy half play. Peats has been slow away after a serious injury but is a former Bunnies man who will lift for this. He works hard in defence but needs to bring a bit more class with the ball in hand.

Stats That Matter
Souths have finished matches well this season winning the last 20 minutes in all three matches while the Eels have struggled in the first half of matches winning just one of six quarters in the opening 40, as per Champion Data. Parramatta have an outstanding record at Parramatta Stadium with a 16-11 (20-7 ATS) record since 2012 while as an outsider they are 12-10 (16-6 ATS) and getting a start of 8 or more they are 4-1 ATS. Souths are 21-8 (18-10 ATS) away from ANZ since 2013 but they are just 4-6 ATS (7-3 over) when giving a start of 8 or more. Home underdogs of 8 or more are 36-15 ATS over the last five seasons. Souths are 7-0 (5-2 ATS) off a quick backup over the last three years. Home underdogs off a loss of 13 or more getting a start of 8 points or better are just 8-8 ATS. Souths are 1-4 ATS off three wins and covers when a road favourite.

Final Thoughts
There is a strange amount of confidence about the Eels in this one. Parramatta are a vastly different team at Parra Stadium and the start is huge. The recent domination of the Rabbitohs is some concern as is their domination of the Eels but this early in the season Parramatta should be able to shape up in front of a monster home crowd. The Rabbitohs weren’t that impressive against the Tigers and the loss of Dylan Walker is notable. Anthony Watmough should play a big role in this one and if he can get the Eels rolling the upset could be on.

How It’s Shaping Up
South Sydney by 4

Best Bet
Parramatta +8.5 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
Parramatta ($3.60)

Over 42.5 ($2.00)

Parramatta vs Souths Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have 2015 NRL Round 4 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.

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