2015 NRL Round 4 Betting Preview for Sydney Roosters vs Canberra thanks to William Hill Australia.
2pm AEDT, Sunday, March 29
Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Roosters have bolted from the gates this year and will go into their clash with Canberra as the shortest priced favourites of 2015 with Ricky Stuart’s team facing a monumental task to knock off the 2013 premiers.
The Sydney Roosters are once again unchanged having fielded the same side every round. Canberra welcome Jack Wighton back to fullback though he will need to pass a fitness test to play. Jordan Rapana shifts to the wing with Bill Tupou dropped. Josh McCrone has also been dumped for Glen Buttriss.
Canberra have a surprisingly good recent record against the Roosters with six wins in the last 13 outings. The teams met just once last year with the Roosters winning 26-12. The Chooks have won 15 of the last 16 at the SFS though with their only loss coming in 2011. Five of the last six matches have tallied 38 or more. Roosters centre Blake Ferguson joined from the Raiders as is Matt McIllwrick while the Raiders have ex-Chooks Iosia Soliola and Frank-Paul Nuuausala. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart is a Roosters premiership winning coach.
The Sydney Roosters have started the season in great form with dominant wins over North Queensland and Penrith sandwiched by an impressive loss to rivals South Sydney. The Chooks have been impressive both with the ball and in defence with their fast play out of hooker setting them up to be the most dominant running team in the premiership. A dominant kicking game has also worked strongly in the Roosters’ favour. The Raiders surprised Cronulla in the opening round before dropping back-to-back home games against New Zealand and St George Illawarra, blowing an 18-point lead last week. Canberra have conceded the most run metres of any team.
Former Canberra superstar Blake Ferguson plays for the first time against his old side and will square off against new Raiders captain Jarrod Croker. Ferguson was among the Roosters’ best last week and will be a handful for Croker, who is a limited centre defensively. If Ferguson runs roughshod over the Raiders this one could get real ugly.
Stats That Matter
The Roosters are 23-8 (17-14 ATS) at the SFS under Trent Robinson with a 17-14 over record. In day matches the Roosters are 4-1 straight and ATS with a 4-1 over record with an average winning margin of 16 points. When favoured by double digits the Chooks are 11-4 (8-7 ATS) while they are 2-2 straight and ATS when favoured by 16 or more. Teams favoured by 16 or more are 18-4 with a 13-9 ATS number and a 13-9 over record. In day matches that goes to 5-1 straight and ATS with a 4-2 over record with an average winning margin of 30 points. The over is 14-5 in Raiders day matches over the last three years while Canberra are a poor 7-12 ATS in day games. They are 7-18 (12-13 ATS) in road games and 6-5 ATS in road games getting a double digit start. Canberra have started an outsider of 16 or more just once since 2009 when they won outright in 2011 in Melbourne. Ricky Stuart teams are 22-29 ATS over the last three seasons.
The Roosters should have few problems disposing of Canberra and despite the big line it can be covered with the Chooks a devastating attacking team at home in day matches. Their style is also perfect to carve up a slow Raiders team through the middle. The strongest play is the over though. All the numbers point to this game being an open affair with plenty of scoring. The line of 44.5 is too low in good weather.
How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney Roosters by 20
Over 44.5 ($1.90)
Other Recommended Bets
Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Comparison Betting Odds
Below we have 2015 NRL Round 4 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.