2015 NRL Round 5 Betting Preview for Gold Coast vs Brisbane thanks to William Hill Australia.
8.35pm AEDT, Friday, April 3
CBus Stadium, Gold Coast
An all-Queensland derby between Gold Coast and Brisbane wraps up the Good Friday slate of games and it strikes as a compelling affair. The Titans found their first win of the year last Saturday while the Broncos are running hot with a three-game win streak.
The Titans have lost Beau Falloon to suspension, replaced by Kierran Moseley. Matt White returns on the bench for Agnatius Paasi. Daniel Mortimer remains on the sideline with Kane Elgey the halfback. Brisbane have lost Justin Hodges and Adam Blair to injury while Jo Ofahaengue is out. Dale Copley comes into the centres, Sam Thaiday starts at prop and Mitch Garbutt and Mitch Dodds join the bench.
Brisbane have dominated the Gold Coast throughout their eight-season history with the Broncos winning 12 of the 17 matches. The Broncos have won 9 of the last 11 clashes though the Titans have won two of the last three on the Gold Coast. The Titans have amazingly not scored more than 14 points in their last 10 games against the Broncos, averaging just 9.2 points a game since 2010. Nine of the last 10 matches between the sides have tallied less than 40 points. The Titans side contains ex-Broncos Josh Hoffman and Dave Taylor.
The Titans have opened the season 1-3 but have been better than their record suggests. After close losses to the Tigers and Knights the Gold Coast broke through at Shark Park last Saturday with a James Roberts intercept try gifting the Titans the points. The Titans rank 12th in attack and 15th in defence but are a team with some improvement in them with discipline being their main issue. Brisbane have been raging after a hammering at home in Round 1 with big wins over Cronulla, North Queensland and New Zealand, the latter on the road after the Warriors came back from 16 points down. Brisbane sit fifth on the ladder but have only the eighth ranked attack and place ninth in defence. Brisbane have missed the fewest tackles of any team while they have conceded the fewest metres.
Expect a huge battle between fullbacks Josh Hoffman and Jordan Kahu. Hoffman left the Broncos at the end of last season filthy that he wasn’t given a fair crack at the fullback jersey. He is getting his chance at the Titans but has struggled so far. He will be wanting to show Wayne Bennett what he missed out on. Jordan Kahu has been the unlikely choice at fullback for the Broncos but has gotten better as the weeks have gone by. He has an assist in each of the last two games, a great sign that he is coming along as a playmaker.
Stats That Matter
The Titans are a poor 10-16 (13-13 ATS) at home over the last three seasons with a 16-10 under record. The Gold Coast have covered their last four home games though. They are 9-4 ATS as a home outsider over the time though with the under also 9-4. Brisbane are 11-16 (14-13 ATS and 18-9 under) on the road including a perfect 8-0 under when a road favourite. The Broncos are 4-3 straight and ATS with a 6-1 under record on a quick backup since 2011. Brisbane are 13-6 (11-8 ATS, 13-6 under) on a three-game win streak. The Titans are 16-9 under off two straight covers. The Titans are 17-6 under off scoring 24 or more points.
All the big indicators in this suggest the under is a moral in this one – and they all go with the excellent situation of a small home underdog being an under game. The Titans are typically an under side while the Broncos as road favourites never go over. The Titans are a red-hot go in this one as well. Brisbane’s historical domination of the Gold Coast makes selecting a Titans outright win a bridge too far but line bettors have to take the plus.
How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 2
Under 39.5 ($1.90)
Other Recommended Bets
Gold Coast +4.5 ($1.90)
Gold Coast vs Brisbane Comparison Betting Odds
Below we have 2015 NRL Round 5 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.