2015 NRL Round 5 Betting Preview for Melbourne vs Warriors thanks to William Hill Australia.
5pm AEDT, Monday, April 6
AAMI Stadium, Melbourne
Melbourne host traditional rivals – and long-time bogey side – New Zealand in what shapes as an absolute belter as the second game of a brilliant Easter Monday three-peat. The Storm and Warriors both enter this off heartbreaking losses and will be desperate to put last week’s disappointment behind them.
Melbourne are unchanged from the loss to North Queensland. The Warriors have made two changes with Matt Allwood dumped for the returning Ngani Laumape while Sebastine Ikahihifo replaces the injured Ben Henry.
Melbourne have just a 17-15 all-time edge over New Zealand with the Warriors shocking the Storm in a number of recent finals matches including the 2011 preliminary final. The Warriors have won the last two – including a 16-10 win in Melbourne last year – while they have won three of the last four in Victoria. Warriors backrower Ryan Hoffman is a three-time premiership winner with the Storm.
Both the Storm and the Warriors are 2-2 after a month but appear to be on different levels in regards form. Melbourne have defeated the Dragons and the Sharks, the latter in their only home game to date, while enduring close losses to Manly and North Queensland, games they arguably should have won. They rank sixth in attack and fourth in defence. The Warriors meanwhile have wins against Canberra and Parramatta and have dropped matches to Newcastle and Brisbane, the latter at home. Their attack and defence both rank ninth.
Cooper Cronk and Shaun Johnson have both been quiet to start the season and both will be looking to kick into high gear this Monday. Cronk had his best game of the year against the Cowboys despite being under a major injury cloud. He is the best organiser and kicker in the game and will be hoping to do more with his running game this week. Johnson is the reigning Golden Boot winner but has been a major disappointment all year and aside from a few flashes of brilliance against the Broncos was ordinary again last week. The pressure is mounting and he needs to step up.
Stats That Matter
Melbourne are 18-9 (10-17 ATS) at AAMI over the last three seasons with an average winning margin of 9.5. When favoured by more than a converted try they are 17-7 with a 9-15 ATS number. The Warriors are 11-20 (13-18 ATS) away from Mt Smart over the same time with just two covers in their last nine matches. When getting more than a converted try they are 4-4 ATS with a 6-2 under number. The Storm are just 4-7 ATS after a close loss.
Melbourne are a much better team on nearly every level. The Warriors have been playing typically Warriors football and that equates to wasteful, inconsistent garbage. It can’t be forgotten that New Zealand have a great record against Melbourne though and this line is very big. Not a great game to bet into but the best play is the Warriors plus.
How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 4
New Zealand +7.5 ($1.95)
Other Recommended Bets
Melbourne vs Warriors Comparison Betting Odds
Below we have 2015 NRL Round 5 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.