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2015 NRL Round 5 Betting Preview – Penrith vs Nth Queensland

2015 NRL Round 5 Betting Preview for Penrith vs Nth Queensland thanks to William Hill Australia.

7pm AEDT, Monday, April 6
Pepper Stadium, Sydney
Round 5 concludes with an absolute humdinger with Penrith hosting North Queensland. The Panthers have lost their way without talismanic hooker James Segeyaro while the Cowboys managed their first win of the year last Monday against Melbourne.

Selection Notes
Penrith welcome back James Segeyaro at hooker along with five-eighth Isaac John and prop Nigel Plum. Api Korisau, Lew Brown and Brent Kite all drop out. The only change for the Cowboys sees Kelepi Tanginoa return on the bench in place of John Asiata.

History
Penrith hold an 18-14 all-time edge over North Queensland but the Cowboys have had the best of it in recent years with four wins in the last five. The sides met just once last year though with the Panthers scoring a thrilling 23-22 win. Eight of the last nine matches between the two sides have topped 40 points. Cowboys Lachlan Coote and Gavin Cooper are ex Penrith stars while Panthers rake James Segeyaro came through the grades at the Cowboys.

Form
Penrith started the season off with a bang with back-to-back wins against Canterbury and the Gold Coast before a tough loss to the Sydney Roosters and a touch-up at the hands of the Knights. Their attack ranks fifth in the NRL while their defence rates fourth. The Panthers lead the NRL in line breaks and offloads but have missed the most tackles. North Queensland were horrific over the opening month with three straight losses – including two at home – to the Roosters, Newcastle and Brisbane before an extra-time win against Melbourne on Monday. The Cowboys’ attack has been their main issue – they rank 13th – while their defence rates last. There are few areas the Cowboys have performed well in with tackling, dummy half running and kicking all major negatives this year.

Key Matchup
Look for a bottler of a matchup between fullbacks Matt Moylan and Lachlan Coote. Moylan essentially forced Coote out of the Panthers and has gone from strength to strength while Coote has just recently returned after missing all of 2014. Moylan has been sublime so far this year while Coote has still been finding his feet. There will be no love lost when these two go at it.

Stats That Matter
The Cowboys are 6-6 (4-8 ATS) on Monday nights since 2012 while the Panthers are 5-5 (3-7 ATS). The Panthers are 20-16 (17-19 ATS) at home since 2012 with a 22-14 under record. They have won seven of their last eight though but have just a 4-4 cover record in that time. When favoured by 4 or more they are 4-1 with a 3-2 ATS number. The Cowboys have covered five of their last six interstate games including four straight as an underdog. North Queensland are 11-3 over interstate since 2012. Penrith are 25-15 under after conceding 20 points. Penrith have covered six of their last eight after losing two straight games.

Final Thoughts
Round 5 finishes on a brutal note for punters with the most difficult game to get a grip on. North Queensland may have turned a corner last weekend with the win against the Storm but Penrith is a difficult place to win at and the Cowboys’ only road game this year was a disaster. The concern with Penrith at the line though is that they rarely put teams away and the absence of Jamie Soward significantly hurts their scoring. Penrith match up well with the Cows though in that they run hard and can force misses, something the Cowboys dread as a bad tackling team. The second phase play of Penrith will also hurt North Queensland. Play this one safe and just take Penrith to win straight out.

How It’s Shaping Up
Penrith by 4

Best Bet
Penrith ($1.53)

Other Recommended Bets
Nil

Penrith vs Nth Queensland Comparison Betting Odds

Below we have 2015 NRL Round 5 comparison betting odds from leading Australian and International online sportsbooks for the game.

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