The biggest game on the rugby league calendar is here, with the Penrith Panthers set to do battle with the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Suncorp Stadium this evening.
There is nothing quite like the atmosphere and build-up to grand final day. It might be slightly different this year out of Sydney, this also being the first grand final to feature two Sydney teams in years ironically, but it won’t change the importance or significance for the 34 players, support staff and coaches who will be fighting for the Provan-Summons trophy this evening.
Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a close-fought battle between two evenly-matched teams.
In fact, you almost couldn’t have scripted a better grand final for the neutrals, with the Panthers and Rabbitohs having fought out a classic just a few weeks ago in the qualifying final.
On that occasion, the Panthers were supposed to get the chocolates to keep the idea that they would clash with the Melbourne Storm alive in the grand final for the second year in a row.
Instead, the Rabbitohs put on their best defensive performance of the season to swat away Penrith, and hasn’t that result sent them on very different paths to the grand final.
While the men from Redfern were able to enjoy a week off before handing the Manly Sea Eagles a pasting in last week’s preliminary final, the Panthers have had to play another two bruising encounters against the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm. Both were low-scoring and physical, but they came away with the win in both.
BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 24: Cody Walker of the Rabbitohs celebrates with team mates after scoring a try during the NRL Preliminary Final match between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the Manly Sea Eagles at Suncorp Stadium on September 24, 2021 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Now the question will be whether their eight-day turnaround is enough to get them ready for the grand final, and whether the battle-hardened level of preparation will beat the far easier run of South Sydney.
The Panthers may have lost the last time these sides played, but they did beat the Rabbitohs badly twice during the season.
This is going to be a cracker.
Team news
Apart from the absence of Tevita Pangai Junior, who suffered an MCL injury to his knee last week, it’s been relatively good news on the injury front for both teams.
Both Adam Reynolds and Dylan Edwards were rumoured to be under a cloud, however, Wayne Bennett and Ivan Cleary both cleared their respective stars after last weekend’s captain’s run.
That said, apart from Pangai Junior and Latrell Mitchell, who has been suspended for the entire finals series, both teams come into the decider at full strength.
MACKAY, AUSTRALIA – SEPTEMBER 18: Tevita Pangai Junior of the Panthers watches on during the NRL Semifinal match between the Penrith Panthers and the Parramatta Eels at BB Print Stadium on September 18, 2021 in Mackay, Australia. (Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Stephen Crichton 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Matt Burton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Tyrone May 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Liam Martin 18. Brent Naden 20. J’maine Hopgood
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Blake Taaffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Mark Nicholls 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Jacob Host 16. Thomas Burgess 17. Jai Arrow 18. Taane Milne 19. Patrick Mago
The key battles
Stopping Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray may be the most important underrated player in the competition.
When you think of the gun Rabbitohs players, Murray’s name comes in behind Adam Reynolds, Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell, Damien Cook and even try-scoring winger Alex Johnston.
But there is no replacement for what Murray provides at both ends of the park.
While defensively he adds plenty – you only need to realise he missed both games this season when the Rabbitohs let in 50 – it’s in attack where he adds the most.
His quick play the balls are arguably better than any other team in the competition, and allow the space and time required by the aforementioned group of players to make the attack as good as it is.
His runs into the line often set defenders on the back foot, and he has an uncanny ability of finding an offload or breaking the line. That all doesn’t even mention his ball-playing.
CAMERON MURRAY
Lock
Rabbitohs
2021 SEASON AVG
1.1
Offloads
0.2
Tries
0
Try Assists
It’s as simple as this – if the Rabbitohs win, Murray is likely to be in the best three players on the park.
The only way to really stop him is to get numbers into tackles and attempt to slow play the balls down, making sure he is unable to land on his hands and knees, but rather, is rolled onto his back in tackles more than he isn’t.
The kicking game
In a game which is likely to be very close and hard-fought, the kicking game could make a world of difference.
Adam Reynolds has fortunately been cleared to kick by the Rabbitohs’ coaching staff, which will add plenty to South Sydney’s attack after Cody Walker was forced to handle duties for the first half an hour in general play last week.
Reynolds’ kicking game is one of the best in the competition, of that there can be little doubt, but it is matched by what will come at him from the other end in Nathan Cleary.
Cleary kicked for more than 600 metres last week and in a game decided by field possession and territory, he could need more of it.
And yet, while long kicking will be important, it’s the patience of the short kicking game which could decide the contest. Whichever half realises repeat sets will be just as valuable as tries could guide his side to victory – and on that count Reynolds may have the edge with the added ability of Walker, and the experience he will bring to the table.
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JUNE 14: Adam Reynolds of the Rabbitohs runs with the ball during the round 15 NRL match between the Parramatta Eels and the South Sydney Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium on June 14, 2018 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Damien Cook and Apisai Koroisau
There isn’t too much between the two dummy halves. Both experienced, both with big games under the belt and both among the top echelon of their position.
Cook probably has the edge in terms of engaging the line, but he will need Murray to play well as already mentioned if he is to have his usual impact.
In saying that, he engages the line more than any other hooker and needs to be close to perfect regardless, particularly when marker defence gets tired through the middle and back-end of the game.
DAMIEN COOK
Hooker
Rabbitohs
2021 SEASON AVG
42.7
Tackles Made
0.1
Tries
0.3
LB Assists
Koroisau used to be the Cook version of play, and still does have excellent spark in his own game, however, it’s hard to say he is on the same level as he once was.
That doesn’t make him a worse player though.
He simply picks his spots better in the second half of his career, and not only that, his service to the forwards and Cleary in particular has gone from strength to strength over the last 24 months in a Penrith uniform.
APISAI KOROISAU
Hooker
Panthers
2021 SEASON AVG
37.9
Tackles Made
0.2
Tries
0.1
LB Assists
The stats you need to know
Of course, if you’re going to talk stats ahead of the grand final, then it has to be mentioned that no one has ever conceded 50 points and gone on to win the competition.
South Sydney have done it twice this year.
Still, if there was ever a time for it to turn around, this is it. The Rabbitohs have Wayne Bennett in charge, are in super form and this year has been a higher scoring year anyway.
There is nothing between the two teams on a historical front either, with the Rabbitohs winning 47 of 88 games, while they have split their two finals meetings.
The Panthers defence was the best in the competition all season and has continued to be that during the finals, letting in just four tries in three games.
Their attack has fallen off a cliff though, which could be an issue, given the Rabbitohs scored nearly 100 more points than them during the regular season.
Where it’ll be won
This is going to be an 80-minute slog. A team could lose it in the first 20 minutes, but they certainly won’t be able to win it.
It’ll be about patience in the kicking games as the forwards wear each other down, and that is more than likely going to be the biggest factor.
If the Rabbitohs can’t find a way to break down the Panthers defence, then they may struggle to put enough points on to match their own defensive fragilities, which have been exposed at various points this season.
The Panthers attack has been clunky, but they still have points in them.
This game almost certainly rests on the quality of Penrith’s defence.
Prediction
This is going to come down to the wire. The Rabbitohs have departing heroes, the Panthers have last year burning in their memory.
That all being said, the Panthers’ defence is just too good. Defence wins premierships, and it should be enough for the men from the foot of the mountains to get over the line in a nail-biter.
Panthers by 4.
What else you need to know
Kick-off: 7:30pm (AEDT) – 6:30pm (AEST)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Broadcast: Live, Channel 9, 9Now
Overall record: Played 88, Rabbitohs 47, Panthers 40, drawn 1
Record in finals: Played 2, Rabbitohs 1, Panthers 1
Match officials: Referee: Gerard Sutton, Touch judges: Todd Smith and David Munro, Bunker official: Grant Atkins
Source:: ZeroTackle
